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It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

Per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

But then, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential England player.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.