Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
